Learn together. Trade thoughtfully.

Weekly BTC review. Price is holding the prior range high as support for the third time — that's constructive, but it is not a signal on its own. My invalidation is a daily close back inside the range. Sharing the annotated chart and my written plan below. Personal opinion, not advice.

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Reminder for anyone starting this week: before your first trade, write down (1) why you are entering, (2) where you are wrong, (3) how much you are willing to lose. If you cannot answer all three, you are not ready — and that is completely fine.

Exchange reserves continued to decline this week across the venues I track, while stablecoin supply ticked up. Historically those two together have coincided with lower available float. Data and methodology linked in the thread — please check my work.

If a protocol advertises a yield and you cannot explain in one sentence who pays it, treat the number as marketing. Wrote up a five-question checklist I run before depositing anything — audits, oracle design, withdrawal queues, governance keys, and TVL concentration.

Custody session recording is up. The short version: your storage setup should be boring enough that a stressed version of you can still follow it at 3am. Practise the recovery, not just the backup.

Month 14 of journaling every trade. My win rate barely moved but my average loss halved, which turned out to be the whole game. Posting the template I use in case it helps someone else — nothing fancy, just a spreadsheet.

Backtested the 'retest the breakout' setup on the top 20 pairs over four years. Results were far less impressive than the timeline suggests once fees and slippage are included. Notebook is public — replicate before you believe me.

Resumen diario: mercados mixtos, volumen concentrado en majors. Todas las fuentes en el hilo. Recordatorio: esto es información, no recomendación de inversión.

Volatility is not risk. Risk is the permanent loss of capital, plus the behaviour that follows it. Sizing so that a bad day is survivable is the single highest-return habit in this room.

Validator uptime, slashing conditions and withdrawal timing — the three things people discover after they stake instead of before. Hosting a walkthrough on Thursday, bring questions.

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Moderation note: we removed a wave of accounts today promising guaranteed returns via direct messages. Simanova staff will never DM you about a private group or ask for funds. Report, block, move on. Thank you to everyone who flagged them.

First proper chart review from me — probably full of mistakes. Please be brutal but kind. I marked the levels I think matter and where I would be wrong.